Macro Charts Edition: 30,000 foot view
Let's take a step back
We’re going to run through 20 macro charts rapid fire to frame the world and how I am thinking about it.
All the macro research is here: Link and link
Chart 1: Inflation surprise index (white) and core CPI (blue). I think we will revert DOWN with surprises into the end of the year.
Chart 2: I think we move down in the DXY into the end of 2024
Chart 3: We could move A LOT higher in GME 0.00%↑
Chart 4: The amount of cash in the major names is a significant point of discontinuity to previous cycles.
Chart 5: The economic surprise index has moved negative but growth remains positive.
Chart 6: Atlanta Fed Nowcast continues to climb (no recession in 2024!)
Chart 7: The carry trade index has retraced its April drawdown and is likely moving to new highs.
Chart 8: The credit spigot is being turned back on.
Chart 9: People are saying this is a double top. I doubt it!
Chart 10: the economy and market are showing resilience to the level of rates (for now!).
Chart 15: Not bearish for the Pound against the dollar.
Chart 16: The loose financial conditions are not just in the US.
Chart 17: The marginal change since 2022 continues to show loosening financial conditions.
Chart 18: In my strategies, we are moving higher in Bitcoin.
Chart 19: We are still reverting from the FOMC lows as implied vol is falling.
Chart 20: In honor of our favorite plumber fixing all our dirty drains, cross-currency basis swaps for
Bringing The Big Picture Together:
The bears are going to get louder and louder as assets go higher and higher. Just remember, there have been perma bears since 2010. The people who understand the least about markets will be the loudest and use the most marketing to disguise the lack of rigor in their ideas. This is simply how history works.
Regime shifts in markets are marked by positioning being offside, a change in correlations, and nonlinear moves. NONE of these are occurring right now. The CPI print this week will shock positioning and then we will likely move in confluence with the views I laid out here: Link
If you want to understand how I think about doing research, check out this podcast:
All the educational articles are here:
“The roots of education are bitter, but the fruit is sweet." – Aristotle
