I was being facetious. I really appreciate you breaking it down where we have some objective, verifiable criteria to consider. I’ve managed to avoid trying to catch the bottom of this thing and don’t want to get in and it just keeps falling like so many have over the past 18 months. But one thing I feel confident about is that when this thing does turn around it’s gonna be an epic trade.
I don’t typically take views on overall convertibles or preferreds. I wouldn’t be taking any credit exposure that could be converted if equity prices drop significantly. Especially at this point in the cycle
Nice, thank you. This week I've been adding to my long term TIPS, Corps, and a very small start in TLT. Still have most of my $ in SGOV and now VGSH. I like the yields in LT corps and TIPS so I feel fine beginning half of my positions now. Looking out 12-18 mos so I am fine with some dd. I probably wont time it as great as you will but pretty happy with what FI can offer right now.
Can we just have Siri set an alert when all those things occur? This ai thing is for the birds if not...
Lol
You could probably set alerts for some of it. However, there is some discretion that is needed for weeding through false signals.
If it was easy, everyone would take the easy way out.
I was being facetious. I really appreciate you breaking it down where we have some objective, verifiable criteria to consider. I’ve managed to avoid trying to catch the bottom of this thing and don’t want to get in and it just keeps falling like so many have over the past 18 months. But one thing I feel confident about is that when this thing does turn around it’s gonna be an epic trade.
Absolutely. I like it 🤝
Also any opinion on Convertibles and preferreds at this point in the cycle?
I don’t typically take views on overall convertibles or preferreds. I wouldn’t be taking any credit exposure that could be converted if equity prices drop significantly. Especially at this point in the cycle
Word.
Nice, thank you. This week I've been adding to my long term TIPS, Corps, and a very small start in TLT. Still have most of my $ in SGOV and now VGSH. I like the yields in LT corps and TIPS so I feel fine beginning half of my positions now. Looking out 12-18 mos so I am fine with some dd. I probably wont time it as great as you will but pretty happy with what FI can offer right now.
I am betting we see some bull steepening into YE, whether or not this is THE low now however I know not.
If there was a shift from inflation to negative growth wouldn’t inflation necessarily be falling...
That would be likely yes. However my point in the article is that needs to be reflected as the dominant impulse in markets.
Additionally, it is very possible to have some type of credit risk similar to SVB where a bid to safety occurs with inflation still elevate.