Macro Regime Tracker: 3-10-2025 - ES Strategy Update
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
The launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
The macro context was laid out in the comprehensive macro report published this morning:
Comprehensive Macro Report: Geopolitics, The Risk In China, and The Carry Trade Unwind
The Monthly Macro Economic Report Is Below:
As the macro report laid out, the primary dynamic we are experiencing is a rotation connected to carry trades. The tensions with China and the rotation are directly connected. The headlines should be interpreted through the framework laid out in the macro report.
President Trump's comments about an economic "transition" were interpreted as increasing the likelihood (and acceptability) of a recession.
Despite increased caution, current market pricing—both Fed rate-cut expectations and 10-year yields—reflects anticipation of an economic slowdown rather than a full-blown recession.
February's inflation report (alongside the January JOLTs report) emerges as the next critical driver of risk sentiment. A softer or inline inflation reading could revive optimism around a responsive Fed, while a hotter print risks deeper equity weakness and further yield curve flattening.
*TRUMP MAY MEET XI IN CHINA AS SOON AS APRIL: SCMP
*GERMANY JAN. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 2.0% M/M; EST. +1.5%
*VOUGHT: CONFIDENT STOPGAP FUNDING BILL WILL PASS HOUSE, SENATE
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
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