Macro Regime Tracker: Crypto Flows
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clear
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
I laid out the big bet I am taking here, and I will be sending a video to paid subscribers explaining it further:
I would encourage everyone to review the macro notes I put here on Bitcoin and Microstrategy. These contextualize WHERE we are likely to go:
As always, all the models are updated below. Thanks
Main Developments In Macro
US Macro & Policy
US 2025 PRELIM. BENCHMARK PAYROLLS REVISION SUBTRACTS 911K
BLOOMBERG DOLLAR SPOT INDEX EXTENDS DROP AFTER PAYROLL REVISION
DIMON SAYS BLS REVISIONS CONFIRM THE US ECONOMY IS WEAKENING
VICE PRESIDENT VANCE COMMENTS ON X ABOUT BLS REVISION
VANCE: CHANGE WAS NECESSARY TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE AT BLS
LEAVITT: WE NEED TRUTHFUL, HONEST DATA FROM BLS
BESSENT: ANTONI 'GREAT PERSON TO DO' FIX OF BLS DATA
BESSENT: FED MUST REGAIN INDEPENDENCE, STOP SERVING THE WEALTHY
BESSENT: FED AMONG THE FOREMOST DRIVERS OF INEQUALITY IN US
BESSENT: FED CHOKING OFF GROWTH WITH HIGH INTEREST RATES
BESSENT: CLEARLY THERE IS CAUSE HERE, WITH FED'S LISA COOK
BESSENT: LISA COOK HASN'T SAID SHE DIDN'T DO MORTGAGE FRAUD
BESSENT: DO THINK MIRAN CAN GET TO FED BEFORE SEPT 17 RATE CALL
TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT COMMENTS IN POST ON X
PICK: FED INDEPENDENCE TO SET MONETARY POLICY IS `SACROSANCT'
US AUG. BUDGET DEFICIT $360B: CBO ESTIMATE
Trade & Tariffs
TRUMP SEEKS TARIFFS FROM EU TO PUT PRESSURE ON RUSSIA: FT
TRUMP ASKS EU TO HIT CHINA, INDIA WITH 100% TARIFFS: FT
SUPREME COURT WILL REVIEW TRUMP TARIFFS ON FAST-TRACK SCHEDULE
ARGUMENTS ON TARIFFS WILL TAKE PLACE IN EARLY NOVEMBER
BESSENT: CONFIDENCE SUPREME COURT WILL BACK TRUMP TARIFFS
PNC CEO SAYS CUSTOMERS HAVE LARGELY FIGURED OUT TARIFF PLAYBOOK
CHILE CENBANK: HARD TO EVALUATE MEDIUM TERM EFFECT OF US TARIFS
BRAZIL IN GOOD POSITION TO WITHSTAND US TARIFF IMPACT: SHETTY
Geopolitics & US Involvement
ISRAEL NOTIFIED US AHEAD OF DOHA STRIKE: WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL
TRUMP AFFIRMED SOLIDARITY WITH QATAR
TRUMP CALLED ON EMIR TO CONTINUE MEDIATION EFFORTS
TRUMP SEES QATAR AS ALLY
TRUMP FEELS VERY BADLY ABOUT LOCATION OF ISRAEL ATTACK
TRUMP ORDERED WITKOFF TO PRE-INFORM QATARIS OF ATTACK
TRUMP HOPES 'UNFORTUNATE INCIDENT' CAN BRING PEACE
LEAVITT: ISRAEL ATTACK IN QATAR DOESN'T ADVANCE US, ISRAEL GOAL
ISRAEL ACCEPTED TRUMP’S PRINCIPLES FOR ENDING WAR: NETANYAHU
NETANYAHU: ACCEPTING TRUMP PROPOSAL COULD END WAR IMMEDIATELY
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Stock/Bond Correlation, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data, interest rates, and real estate.
Momentum and Mean Reversion Models: Equities, Commodities, Fixed Income, and Currencies
You can find the educational primer and video explanation of these models here: LINK
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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