Macro Regime Tracker: No recession
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
Here is the market wrap video I recorded at the close:
Today is the last day to lock in the lower price on the Substack:
Capital Flows Discount For Early Adopters - 31% Off For The Next 10 Days
1. The Road Already Travelled
The report contextualizing all the views is here:
Main Developments In Macro
*DIMON: `I WOULD EXPECT CONTINUED VOLATILITY'
*POWELL DOESN’T COMMENT ON NEAR-TERM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, RATE PATH
*POWELL: ANCHORED INFLATION EXPECTATIONS CRITICAL TO ALL WE DO
*TRUMP’S RUSH FOR AI DEALS IN GULF OPENS RIFT WITH CHINA HAWKS
*TRUMP TARGETS BILLIONS IN ENERGY GRANTS FOR NEW ROUND OF AUDITS
*US WANTS TO TALK AGRICULTURE, ECONOMIC SECURITY WITH EU: WSJ
*BARR: SMALL BUSINESSES MORE VULNERABLE TO SUPPLY-CHAIN SHOCKS
*BARR: UNEMPLOYMENT LOW AND STABLE, INF. CONTINUING DOWN TO 2%
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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