Macro Regime Tracker: The Credit Cycle
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
See the credit cycle playbook I published today here:
Main Developments In Macro
*UK APRIL MANUFACTURING PMI 45.4; PRELIM 44
*YELLEN: TRUMP TARIFFS TO HAVE 'TREMENDOUSLY ADVERSE' IMPACT: FT
*YELLEN SAYS US RECESSION 'ODDS HAVE GONE WAY UP': FT
OPEC+ Output Boost May Drag Oil ‘Into $50s or Beyond’: Citigroup
*BESSENT: US, UKRAINE DEAL SHOWS NO DAYLIGHT BETWEEN US, UKRAINE
*BESSENT: US-UKRAINE DEAL STRONG SIGNAL TO RUSSIA
*BESSENT: US-UKRAINE DEAL HELPS TRUMP NEGOTIATE WITH RUSSIA
*BESSENT ON CHINA: FIRST, WE NEED DE-ESCALATION ON TARIFFS
*BESSENT ON CHINA: US WILL LIKELY REVISIT JAN 2020 PURCHASE DEAL
*BESSENT: WILL HOLD CHINA TO AGREEMENTS THEY PREVIOUSLY SIGNED
*BESSENT: MEETING WITH JAPAN ON TRADE TODAY
*BESSENT: HAD VERY GOOD MEETING WITH INDONESIA FINANCE MINISTER
*BESSENT: I'M NOT INVOLVED WITH EU TALKS NOW
*BESSENT: WE EXPECT ECO DATA TO BE REVISED
*BESSENT: US HAD GOOD FIRST QUARTER, EXPECT NUMBER TO BE REVISED
*BESSENT:2-YEAR RATE BELOW FED FUNDS RATE SIGNALS FED SHOULD CUT
*TRADERS FULLY PRICE FOUR MORE BOE QUARTER-POINT CUTS IN 2025
*HASSETT: HOPEFUL FOR PROGRESS WITH CHINA
*HASSETT: HARD TRADE OFFERS FROM MORE THAN 20 COUNTRIES
*HASSETT: TRUMP DOESN'T SUPPORT TAX INCREASE ON WEALTHY
US April Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs Flash Reading 50.7
*US WEIGHS EASING NVIDIA CHIP CURBS ON UAE AS TRUMP PLANS VISIT
*US 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATES FALL TO 6.76%, FREDDIE MAC SAYS
*TRUMP: BESSENT NEGOTIATING WITH 200 COUNTRIES
*OPEC OIL OUTPUT FELL IN APRIL DESPITE PLANS TO INCREASE: SURVEY
*TRUMP: WHO TAKES OIL FROM IRAN CANNOT DO BUSINESS WITH US
*TRUMP LABOR DEPARTMENT PAUSES BIDEN-ERA GIG WORKER RULE
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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