Macro Regime Tracker: The direction of equities
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
The launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
I have laid out the tensions for equities and bonds in the following pieces for paid subscribers:
Main Idea: ES just moved to an implied volatility discount as the index is still below the 5,700 level. The fact that implied volatility has moved back to a discount without ES rallying above the 5,800 level is a clear indication that important macro drivers are in play and need to be monitored closely. Watching Chinese equities during the Asia session and Eurostoxx during the London session will be critical given the rotation out of US equities and into these other countries.
Main Developments In Macro Today:
*SWEDEN'S RIKSBANK LEAVES POLICY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.250%
*SNB CUTS POLICY RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.25%; EST. 0.25%
*SNB'S SCHLEGEL: WON'T HESITATE TO USE FX INTERVENTIONS
*SNB NOTES LOW INFLATIONARY PRESSURE
*BOE LEAVES KEY RATE AT 4.5%; EST. 4.500%
*BOE'S BAILEY SAYS 'THERE'S A LOT OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY'
*BOC’s MACKLEM SAYS FEBRUARY INFLATION HAS THE BANK'S ATTENTION
*TRUMP SIGNS ACTION BOOSTING US CRITICAL MINERALS OUTPUT
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
(If you are new and would like to do a free trial to review the full macro regime tracker with the connected ES strategy, a link to a free trial is available here: Link).
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