Macro Regime Tracker: The Next Stage For Equities
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
So much of the current flows are hinging on tech right now because of all the headwinds for AI. However, the tariff news is decreasing in its impact on markets. We are likely approaching a short-term macro inflection point for equities. I will cover this fully at the end of this piece.
See the educational piece I wrote today here:
Additional models for paid subscribers will be launched this weekend. Like I said, it will only get better.
Main Developments In Macro
*HAMMACK: IT'S TOO SOON TO CONSIDER RATE MOVE IN MAY
*HAMMACK: FED NOT AFRAID TO MOVE QUICKLY IF NECESSARY
*HAMMACK: FOMC COULD MOVE IN JUNE WITH CLEAR, CONVINCING DATA
*FED'S HAMMACK SAYS FIRMS PAUSING INVESTMENTS AMID UNCERTAINTY
*FED GOVERNOR CHRISTOPHER WALLER SAYS ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION
*WALLER: WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE MORE LAYOFFS IF BIG TARIFFS
*WALLER: NOT LIKELY TO SEE BIG IMPACTS FROM TARIFFS BY JULY 1
*WALLER: HAVE A BETTER SENSE OF TARIFF IMPACT IN H2 OF THIS YR
*WALLER: STRONGLY BELIEVE TARIFFS ARE ONE-TIME PRICE EFFECT
*WALLER: SERIOUS DROP IN JOB MKT COULD PROMPT MORE CUTS, SOONER
*TRUMP: BOEING SHOULD DEFAULT CHINA FOR NOT TAKING THE PLANES
*TRUMP REITERATES CRITICISM ON CANADA, MEXICO ON FENTANYL FLOW
*TRUMP SAYS HE BELIEVES PUTIN WILL LISTEN TO HIM
*TRUMP POISED TO OFFER SAUDI ARABIA OVER $100B ARMS PACKAGE: RTRS
*JAPAN'S KATO SAYS HE TOLD BESSENT TARIFFS HIGHLY REGRETTABLE
*TOKYO APRIL CORE CPI RISES 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.2%
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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