Macro Regime Tracker: Update on Bitcoin and Equities
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning, AI, and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
AI and Machine Learning Strategies - Macro Regime and Positioning Premiums Strategies: S&P 500, 2-Year Interest Rates, Gold, and Bitcoin
Macro Regime Context:
See the interest rate report here:
And most recent macro report here:
Main Developments In Macro
*ECB'S MULLER: GROWTH TO BE MORE MODEST, RECESSION UNLIKELY
*BOE'S BAILEY: I WAS 'VERY ENCOURAGED' BY BESSENT SPEECH
*BOE'S BAILEY: A LOT OF LEVERAGE IN GOVERNMENT BOND MARKETS
*FED: PRICES INCREASED, DESCRIBED AS MODEST OR MODERATE
*FED: EMPLOYMENT LITTLE CHANGED TO SLIGHTLY UP IN MOST DISTRICTS
*FED: UNCERTAINTY AROUND TRADE POLICY PERVASIVE ACROSS REPORTS
*FED: US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LITTLE CHANGED SINCE PREVIOUS REPORT
*LEAVITT: CHINA TARIFFS ARE LEVERAGE
*BESSENT: `EXPECT THE JAPANESE TO HONOR THE G-7 AGREEMENT' ON FX
*BESSENT SAYS 'NO CURRENCY TARGETS' SOUGHT IN JAPAN TRADE TALKS
*LEAVITT: THERE WILL BE NO UNILATERAL REDUCTION ON CHINA TARIFF
*LEAVITT: THERE WILL BE A FAIR TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA
*LEAVITT: NOT FAIR TO SAY TRUMP IS SOFTENING
*VILLEROY: TARIFF IMPACT ON EURO-ZONE INFLATION MORE UNCERTAIN
*TRUMP TO EXEMPT CAR PARTS FROM TARIFFS ON CHINA IMPORTS: FT
*TRUMP: US HAVING DIRECT CONTACT WITH CHINA DAILY
*TRUMP: CANADA CAR TARIFFS COULD GO UP
*TRUMP: REALLY DON'T WANT CARS FROM CANADA
*TRUMP: BELIEVE POWELL MAKING A MISTAKE
*TRUMP REITERATES HE HOPES HE CAN MAKE A DEAL WITH XI
*TRUMP REITERATES: IF WE DON'T MAKE A DEAL, WILL SET A PRICE
*TRUMP: TARIFF RATE FOR CHINA COULD COME OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS
*LUTNICK TELLS TRUMP 90 COUNTRIES HAVE SPOKEN TO US ON TRADE
*TRUMP: LOWERING CHINA TARIFFS DEPENDS ON THEM
*TRUMP ON LOWERING CHINA TARIFFS: DEPENDS
*HAMMACK: NOW NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE PRE-EMPTIVE WITH RATE CUTS
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth, Inflation, Fixed Income, Credit, and Equities Regime Tracker
The Macro Regime Model offers a real-time view of growth, inflation, and yield curve dynamics, integrating these with credit market shifts, equity risk premiums, and positioning data. It connects upcoming catalysts to statistical drivers of asset prices, creating a unified framework that quantifies skew and clarifies risk-reward across asset classes.
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