Macro Report/Insights: Yield Curve

Steepening

In multiple macro reports, I have noted the R:R of being long the steepener. Here is the R:R I originally shared (link, link):

We are now seeing the 10s 3ms steepen as well:

This is happening post-NFP print:

We came into this week with consensus expecting the labor market to deteriorate marginally to “confirm” the cuts in the forward curve.

The thing is that the FED has made clear they will still cut if we don’t go into recession as long as inflation is falling.

Main idea: The curve is steepening while growth is resilient which is a confirmation of the Goldilocks regime.

I remain long bonds. My view is that we remain bullish bonds during this goldilocks regime. If anything changes I will let you know. I will be writing a full asset class report on bonds this weekend for paid Subscribers so be on the lookout.

Always be ready for the opportunity that is presented to you!