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Trade: Closing Gold Trade (For Now)
We are now at $1943. I am closing it here because we are pretty overbought. I will be looking for other opportunities to get long but when such a large move takes place, you need to take a gain.
Second, I noted the ES bullish view (link)
We have moved up from the original R:R.
Here are my thoughts: I don’t want to take any unneeded weekend risk right now. We haven’t had any geopolitical volatility in a while and it’s so easy for some news to come out that causes outsized moves in risk assets. For now, FLAT ES view. I will after futures open this weekend.
This small tick-up in oil along with such a strong bid in gold during a strong dollar indicates the geopolitical risk premia is exerting itself a little more before the weekend:
People were focused on the CPI print this past week but that wasn’t the main event. It was duration issuance. See my original article here on this tension:
The CPI print moved positioning around a little but it was later in the day during the treasury auction that really moved things:
This is what dragged down ES marginally due to the bear steepener
Final chart I found incredibly helpful: We have seen the demand side move in lockstep with the macro growth situation but supply dynamics are beginning to exert their force again on energy prices.
All of these moving parts in macro are in a constant state of flux in terms of their movement and causal impact. The way to get a grasp of them is to understand each of them individually and be in a constant state of interpreting them correctly. This framework of thinking applies to any domain. You could be running a shipping company or local business, it’s the same thing.
Those who have an eye for what is actually taking place will always be paid a premium.
Thanks for reading!