Trade: Opening

Macro Regime

I have laid out the initial logic for WHERE we are in the macro regime in the following:

• Alpha Report: How tariffs interact with the macro regime

• Trade: Opening

• Trade: Long MSTR

• Macro Video: Is there downside in equities?

We continue to be in this political regime shift range in equities. The KEY for taking trades right now is understanding WHY these moves are taking place as they connect with the changes in macro.

You will notice that the curve has been bull-flattening for almost two weeks as the Fed holds its stance constant. This is directly connected to the support in equities and WHY implied vol premiums are being bought so aggressively:

The NFP print tomorrow will be THE direct input into the curve for flows for Friday and Monday. Understanding this will inform the levels in ES and bonds: