I think your thesis is correct but I'm worried about the timing. It seems to me that 10-years are getting bids because of their safe haven status in the midst of the debt-deal stall (which markets expect to be resolved this week) and a weakening global economy, but there could be sell off next week if a deal isn't penned by Friday.
I think your thesis is correct but I'm worried about the timing. It seems to me that 10-years are getting bids because of their safe haven status in the midst of the debt-deal stall (which markets expect to be resolved this week) and a weakening global economy, but there could be sell off next week if a deal isn't penned by Friday.
Maybe, or not. If it goes down I’ll get stopped out. Not a big deal either way.
hi why the 10s instead of longer tenors?
Will provide a breakdown in the next substack. maybe after market close.
Wouldn't the coming Treasury issuance after a debt ceiling resolution push yields highier in the next few months?
Maybe. It really depends.