6 Comments
May 24, 2023Liked by Capital Flows

I think your thesis is correct but I'm worried about the timing. It seems to me that 10-years are getting bids because of their safe haven status in the midst of the debt-deal stall (which markets expect to be resolved this week) and a weakening global economy, but there could be sell off next week if a deal isn't penned by Friday.

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Maybe, or not. If it goes down I’ll get stopped out. Not a big deal either way.

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May 23, 2023Liked by Capital Flows

hi why the 10s instead of longer tenors?

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Will provide a breakdown in the next substack. maybe after market close.

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Wouldn't the coming Treasury issuance after a debt ceiling resolution push yields highier in the next few months?

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Maybe. It really depends.

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