Trades: Long ES

Bullish risk

May 30, 2024

I have laid out the tensions for the macro situation and my view on equities:

Trades/Week Ahead: Rates, GDP and Inflation Print (macro context for this week)
Asset Class Report: Equities (I broke down the R:R of equities)
Interest Rate Report: Strategy and Trades (full analysis of where we are in rates)

I have also written a primer on interest rates with a comprehensive list of books, papers, and resources. Interest rates are functionally a derivative of interest rates so if you understand what is happening with rates, you’ll understand WHY equities are moving.

Interest Rates Primer

Capital Flows

May 21

The Big Picture: I remember when I first started studying why interest rates were important. It was one of the most eye-opening experiences of my life. I originally thought interest rates were irrelevant yields that the boring parts of portfolios were made of. Stocks were always where the cool kids were making money. After conducting a historical study …

Read full story

I am opening an ES long here. If we close below 5200, the position will be stopped out.

Remember the logic for flows right now. Rates moving up on the long end are causing marginal selling in risk assets. However, since there is limited downside in bonds here, any pullback in risk assets are opportunity for longs. What you want to do is stack a technical and positioning edge within this macro view.

I will be opening several additional positions this week as well so stay tuned.

The Bitcoin long remains on and positive: https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1788675596069081547

Calm under chaos