So reading across your recent posts, it seems like we are more likely to see inflation reaccelerate or remain flat than disinflate. Rule of thumb that disinflation follows a growth slowdown would support that. Even a modest slow down or recession might not drop inflation low enough for the fed to cut a ton if employment doesn’t fall much. All this makes the next risk to equities maybe another liquidity drain to much higher long end yields ala 2022? Is that on your radar or you expecting a growth grind up with steady inflation? How do you see this playing forward 1-2 moves?
So reading across your recent posts, it seems like we are more likely to see inflation reaccelerate or remain flat than disinflate. Rule of thumb that disinflation follows a growth slowdown would support that. Even a modest slow down or recession might not drop inflation low enough for the fed to cut a ton if employment doesn’t fall much. All this makes the next risk to equities maybe another liquidity drain to much higher long end yields ala 2022? Is that on your radar or you expecting a growth grind up with steady inflation? How do you see this playing forward 1-2 moves?
So reading across