Week Ahead, Liquidity, And Macro Livestream
The largest changes having the biggest impact
Week Ahead and Macro Liquidity
“All money that is anywhere has to come from somewhere”
That is a fundamental presupposition for HOW the flows of capital function in the system.
When I dont understand WHY something is happening in markets, I always start by breaking down all of the sources and destinations of liquidity. When you map these, you can see how capital flows between different assets.
Here is the thing that confuses people, though: the flows of capital are never evenly distributed through time. This is where the historic phrase, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” comes from.
We are in a short period of time where decades are happening.
I want to draw your attention to a very specific SOURCE of liquidity that is shifting the amount of global liquidity int he system, JAPAN.
I put out a short note for paid subscribers yesterday explaining how Japan is one of the main drivers of liquidity as opposed to the labor market print: It was the fiscal news out of Japan, not NFP, that was driving flows.
Why does this matter? Because the SOURCE of liquidity explains short-term divergences like this, where the Nikkei is holding its bid as ES pulls back marginally on an intraday basis.
Does it begin to make more sense why gold and silver are up right now during the overnight session during this divergence? The liquidity is coming from Japan, which is bidding for gold and silver. This was one of the main drivers I explained in the livestream last week (Full slide deck and recording: LINK)
Until China stops its trade war, Japan stops its fiscal spending, or the Fed stops cutting, gold and silver are likely to continue melting up. Will there be pull-backs and positioning unwinds? Sure, but the larger structural drivers are always going to be the signal amid the noise.
Gold and Silver Are Front-Running a Major Shift
If you want to understand these structural forces, I’ll be doing a live session tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, starting 30 minutes before the U.S. cash close. I’ll walk through the structural drivers behind gold and silver, why this melt‑up is happening, and exactly how to manage position risk during pullbacks or when price looks “overbought.” If you want a clear, actionable playbook instead of guessing at headlines, join the livestream via the link in this note.
Week Ahead
On top of the livestream, here are all the catalysts I am watching this week, and I will walk you through them in real-time in the chat function here on Substack.
Week Ahead (Mon Jan 12 to Fri Jan 16)
This week is shaped by two things: (1) the US inflation/growth stack (CPI, retail sales/PPI, claims/soft data), and (2) US Treasury auctions plus a dense run of bank earnings. If markets are already leaning one way (rates/risk), this is the kind of week that can either validate the narrative or force a rethink or repricing.
The core macro pulse
US CPI (Tue) is the anchor print for rates, USD, and FI duration. A clean downside surprise will see release more real-rate pressure and supports risk assets. A sticky print re-prices the front end and drags long-duration.
US retail sales + PPI (Wed), retail sales is the a growth check, PPI helps validate (or undermine) the CPI impulse.
Claims + regional surveys(Thu) are the cross-currents with labour cooling vs resilience
Monday, Jan 12
APAC
India CPI
EMEA
Euro-area Sentix investor confidence
ECB’s Guindos and Villeroy
Americas
Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Barkin
US 3- and 10-year note auctions
Tuesday, Jan 13
APAC
Japan trade balance and current account balance
Australia Westpac consumer confidence
EMEA
ECB’s Kocher
Americas
US CPI
US new home sales
ADP weekly employment change
NFIB small business optimism
Federal budget balance
Canada building permits
Fed’s Musalem and Barkin
US 30-year bond auction
EIA short term energy outlook report
JPMorgan earnings
Wednesday, Jan 14
APAC
China trade balance
EMEA
ECB’s Guindos
BOE’s Taylor and Ramsden
OPEC monthly oil market report
Americas
US retail sales
US PPI
US current account balance
US existing home sales
US business inventories
Fed Beige Book
Fed’s Miran, Williams, Kashkari, Paulson and Bostic
Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup earnings
Thursday, Jan 15
APAC
Japan PPI
TSMC earnings
EMEA
Euro-area industrial production and trade balance
Germany GDP 2025
France CPI (final)
UK monthly GDP, industrial production and trade balance
BOE bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys
Americas
US jobless claims
US import price index
Empire manufacturing
Philadelphia Fed business outlook
TIC flows
Canada manufacturing sales
Brazil retail sales
Fed’s Bostic and Barkin
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley earnings
Friday, Jan 16
EMEA
Germany CPI (final)
Americas
US industrial production
NAHB housing market index
Canada housing starts
Brazil FGV inflation
Fed’s Jefferson
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