Captial Flows
Capital Flows is the synthesized output of the global macro strategies I run to map the movement of capital across interest rates, FX, and risk assets. The objective is simple: identify the macro regime, quantify its drivers, and find asymmetric trades.
Growth, inflation, liquidity, and credit are the foundational forces behind every change in the economy and financial markets. All of the research published here is built from those first principles.
The work centers on G10 interest rates, from short-term interest rate markets out to the long end of the curve. This includes analysis of every major curve, the underlying drivers of rates, and how those drivers connect to the real economy. From there, the research prices risk across the full equity risk curve, tracing how the rates complex transmits into equities, credit, and volatility.
The final layer is the international monetary system. Cross-border capital flows link domestic rate regimes to each other and are the primary force moving FX markets. Mapping these flows correctly is what allows rates, FX, and equities to be understood as a single connected system rather than three separate markets.
Every piece of research provides the models needed to quantify these moving parts, so that you know what is happening, why it is occurring, and how to take risk.
All the educational primers, book recommendations, and financial models: LINK
TradingView models: LINK
Full Archive: LINK
The chat is for daily updates:
Disclaimers and Risks
NONE of the publications are financial advice. NONE of the trade ideas is financial advice. You are responsible for any gains and losses.
The analysis can be incorrect. There is a high degree of uncertainty in markets.
Hit ratio and risk management: In trading, the best money managers in the world have a hit ratio (number of trades they get right / number of trades they get wrong) of 50-60%. This means half of the ideas or trades that are implemented will either lose money or get taken off. Risk management and position sizing bets are the only way to consistently make money over time. This is true regardless of whether you are a long-term investor or short-term trader.
The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.
