Capital Flows is the space where I share all my Top-Down/Bottom-up macroeconomic research and show how I am tangibly implementing it in financial markets. If you are new, check out all the educational articles I have written. There are primers on macroeconomics, equities, bonds, FX, and a lot more:
What Is Capital Flows About?
My skill set is unique in that I consume vast amounts of information across many domains AND am an active practitioner in trading markets.
I share macroeconomic/financial market analysis and specific trade ideas. My ultimate goal is to find information that contains an asymmetrical edge so that I can leverage it in financial markets. I provide an honest and tangible view of this entire process. This Substack is meant to provide a comprehensive view into the learning, research, strategy development, and trading process in financial markets (and life).
Disclaimers and Risks
NONE of the publications are financial advice! NONE of the trade ideas are financial advice! You are responsible for any gains and losses!
My analysis can be incorrect. There are many areas of the economy and market I am still trying to understand properly. It is possible that I will say things that are incorrect. If this occurs and I realize that I was wrong, I will update you and make corrections. Any feedback or thoughts are always welcome.
Hit ratio and risk management: In trading, the best money managers in the world have a hit ratio (number of trades they get right / number of trades they get wrong) of 50-60%. This means half of the ideas or trades that are implemented will either lose money or get taken off. Risk management and position sizing bets are the only way to consistently make money over time. This is true regardless if you are a long-term investor or short-term trader.
The Paid Version of the Substack includes the following:
Structure of Articles:
“The Research HUB”: These reports are on books, academic papers, or strategy development. The focus is on education and developing a knowledge base across all countries and markets in the world. I will be sharing in-depth research and models here.
“Macro Report/Insights”: I write monthly macro reports that comprehensively break down all economic data points and connect them to each asset class. This is meant to inform views/trades on a cyclical and structural basis.
Monthly Webinar: There will be a monthly webinar (on Zoom) where I expand further on the macro report and share analysis. This is a time when you can directly ask questions.
“Asset Class Reports”: I write weekly reports on stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. These reports connect the top-down macro views to the bottom-up idiosyncracies of s specific asset. In addition, they will cover attribution analysis, positioning, and how flows of capital for each asset.
Quantitive Signals: This report provides a breakdown of the quantitive signals I am running across all major asset classes. Understanding how quantitive signals connect with qualitative information is fundamental in markets. This report will cover this dynamic in depth.
“Week Ahead Strategy”: These reports provide a breakdown of future catalysts that are likely to impact assets and either confirm or falsify macro views. This is where scenario analysis and preparation pay dividends.
“Trades”: These reports will be specific trades I am running in connection with the macro research I have conducted.
“Brainstorms”: These shorter articles will be broader thoughts connecting things together and a catch-all category for how I am thinking about the world.
Discord: There is a connected Discord for Capital Flows. It is a place where I interact directly with Subscribers and work on specific research or projects with you. The goal of the Discord is to function as a space where thoughts can be discussed and shared freely.
Discord Link: https://discord.gg/E3A8ybJp
If you have any questions or simply want to introduce yourself, feel free to DM me on Twitter or email me at email@example.com
The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.