Forging Ahead: The Future of Macro Alpha with Capital Flows

Updates and direction for taking large leverage macro trades on the Capital Flows Substack

The Stage Is Set:

You’re here because you recognize that in today’s volatile markets, success demands more than just following trends or relying on surface-level analysis. It takes a deep understanding of the macro environment to navigate the risks and capitalize on opportunities. There have been massive meltups and meltdowns in BOTH stocks and bonds over the past 5 years. These have shaken the world and everyone realizes they need a framework for WHY things are happening instead of blindly hoping everything somehow works out.

The problem is that the risks are growing exponentially but there is a lack of clarity around managing all of these risks in real time. The danger lies on both sides of the distribution—getting caught unprepared in a downturn or being overly cautious and missing upside opportunities.

Up to now, you’ve probably come across market commentary and 'macro research' from both perma-bears and perma-bulls—analysts who stubbornly cling to oversimplified views, even as stocks and bonds move in the opposite direction of their predictions. We’ve seen countless recession calls over the past two years, all while interest rates surged higher, defying these forecasts. Each of these missed calls wasn’t just noise; they were massive opportunities for those who understood the real macro drivers. The challenge has been filtering out the blind spots and recognizing these moments as chances to both preserve and compound wealth.

Having clarity and confidence to act in times of volatility is what gets paid the highest premium in markets (and life). This comes from having the right framework which is built on a deep understanding of the macro drivers that shape the market (educational primers on every aspect of macro have been written: Link). This framework functions as the foundation for managing macro inflection points across all major assets.

This is why we are refining the structure of the Capital Flows Substack to make all of the research incredibly easy to access (you can reference all of this in the “About” section):

Structure of Articles:

• Macro Reports: These reports break down how the macro regime is evolving and quantify all economic data points, directly connecting them to each asset class. They offer a comprehensive view of the economic landscape, linking data points to an informational edge across interest rates, FX, and risk assets. These reports provide a holistic picture of the macro regime and how to contextualize each asset within it.

• Alpha Reports: These reports build on the foundation of the macro reports, diving into the generation of alpha through both systematic and discretionary strategies. They analyze how the risk-reward profile of interest rates, FX, and assets across the risk curve is dynamically developing within the macro context, leveraging the informational edge to identify the most asymmetrical opportunities.

• Trades: These reports detail specific trades I’m executing, grounded in both the macro research and alpha strategies. Each report will break down the rationale behind the trade, the timing, risk management, scenario analysis, and redundancy planning to ensure a comprehensive approach to managing both risk and reward.

Each of these have their own tab on the main page of the website: Link

The framework provided through the Macro Reports, Alpha Reports, and Trade Reports equips you with the tools to navigate the macro landscape, no matter your role in the financial markets. Whether you’re a business leader seeking precision, a financial advisor guiding clients, or an active trader, these reports provide clarity on the macro picture that can be directly applied to each unique situation. While we can’t know what the future holds, we can know WHAT is happening and HOW to act accordingly.

I am here to play long-term games with long-term people and I have no interest in slowing down (link):

We Aren’t Slowing Down:

We are still very early in the journey of growing and refining the alpha on this Substack, and I’m committed to continuing to push the quality and depth of the research even further. For those who commit early as paid subscribers, you’ll be positioned to benefit from the high-quality macro research that will guide us through the next major macro inflection points across interest rates, FX, and risk assets.

The pricing of the Substack is currently set at $70/month and will increase as we continue to scale. The quality and quantity of alpha will only grow over time, and as early subscribers, you’re positioning yourself to benefit from everything that’s still to come. If you’re here for the long term, now is the perfect time to become a part of this journey and lock in your place as we continue to scale.

There will be a price increase to $80/month on September 20th. If you subscribe BEFORE September 20th, you will lock in the lower price for all the future upsides. This would also be a great time to do a free trial because I will be publishing an Alpha Report over the weekend. There is zero downside to trying a free trial and only upside.

The best is yet to come and we aren’t taking our foot off the gas even a little bit. Get ready fren!