The Volatile Future:
The post-COVID world we have moved into is one where violent shocks are becoming commonplace. The slow trending markets of the 2010s are becoming a nostalgic memory that growth investors fondly look back upon, where they could just buy tech and get paid without taking any significant volatility. Once you take volatility out of the bottle on a structural basis, you can’t put it back into the jar.
If you are brand new to Capital Flows, my goal is very simple: map the macro regime so that I’m on the right side of it, and find the few large, asymmetric bets that become home run trades.
This report is very straightforward and has two things:
First, a video breakdown of the current macro regime, how to think about the pull back in the S&P500, and how it connects to the larger geopolitical context.
Second, a breakdown of WHERE the dollar is going and the current drivers that have caused a significant whipsaw in positioning YTD.
I have been laying out the larger geopolitical context for years now on how China and the US are at odds, and these proxy conflicts will keep coming up until an ultimate endgame resolution is found. I would strongly encourage you to watch the video and go through the connected slide on this here:
Today’s video:
In this video, I break down the previous macro report on the risks of a global recession (link) and then walk through the drawdown playbook as well as the macro regime dashboard. You can find both of these as PDFs below.
PDFs from video:
Agentic Models: (side quest)
A few weeks ago, I did a video on how I use multi-agents to run various parts of my research process for identifying trade ideas. If you want to build something like this with Claude code, I have put together an entire instruction guide here with plug-and-play code.
If you want to connect these larger geopolitical and macro flows with the changes we are seeing in the dollar, the report below breaks down all of the drivers in the dollar.
The dollar is the pure reflection of these flows:
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