Macro Regime Tracker: 3-12-2025 - ES Strategy Update
Macro regime and risk assets qualified clearly
Macro Regime Tracker (Daily Systematic Strategies & Models)
The Macro Regime Tracker offers a daily lens on how shifts in growth, inflation, and liquidity affect short-term risk and reward. Leveraging machine learning and cross-asset data, it identifies macro changes and their impact on market positioning.
The launch video for the Macro Regime Tracker is here: Link
Macro Regime Tracker Index:
Macro Regime Context
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker
Fixed Income and Credit Model
Equity Sector Model
Machine Learning Strategies and Models
Macro Regime Context:
We are approaching an extreme in positioning within the macro constraints of the regime. Positioning is about the price that you pay for exposure to the macro regime. On a fundamental basis, you need a shift in the actual constraints of the macro regime to have persistent moves in things like the VIX or credit spreads. The logic for thinking about this relationship between the macro regime and positioning is laid out in the Macro Alpha Primers that can be found here:
Macro Alpha Primers:
Macro Alpha Primer: Credit Risk and Duration Risk and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
Macro Alpha Primer: Correlations and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
Macro Alpha Primer: Macro Catalysts, Hedging Pressure, and Positioning and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
Macro Alpha Primer: Positioning Premiums and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer
The macro regime has been laid out in the most recent macro report here:
Comprehensive Macro Report: Geopolitics, The Risk In China, and The Carry Trade Unwind
The Monthly Macro Economic Report Is Below:
You will notice that the majority of news about tariffs is beginning to have less and less of an impact on markets which is partially due to the wider ranges we are seeing AND the uncertainty being priced in.
*TRUMP REITERATES HE WILL DO RECIPROCAL TARIFFS
*TRUMP: PEOPLE GOING TO RUSSIA NOW, HOPE WE CAN GET CEASEFIRE
*TRUMP CALLS LATEST INFLATION NUMBERS VERY GOOD NEWS
*SHEINBAUM: MEXICO NOT RESPONDING NOW TO STEEL, ALUMINUM TARIFFS
*BANK OF CANADA CUTS KEY RATE 25 BPS TO 2.75%, MATCHING EST.
*LUTNICK: WILL BRING TARIFFS DOWN IF OTHER COUNTRIES DO SAME
*TRUMP TOLD BOWMAN SHE WILL BE VICE CHAIR FOR FED: FOX BUSINESS
*TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE BOWMAN SOON AS FED TOP BANKING COP NOMINEE
*ECB'S SIMKUS: WILL SEE IN APRIL IF WE CUT OR PAUSE
Macro Tear Sheets: Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Crypto, and Commodities
Macro Regime Dashboard: Excel spreadsheet for economic data and interest rates
Growth and Inflation Regime Tracker:
The Macro Regime Model first provides a real-time view of growth and inflation dynamics, then directly connects these insights to upcoming catalysts and the statistical measures that gauge their impact on asset prices.
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