Great report. Thank you. Regarding the topic about will the fed start cutting only once inflation gets to 2%, do you think the Fed gives any credence to the real time data from Truflation?
It's not just the function of chatgpt to act as mathematical model. I'm looking at chatgpt holistically. If you can do that they're probably many other extremely useful things you can do with it
I hope this isn't too naive of a question but where do you see consumer interest costs going in the next 5 years? Would you lock a mortgage in now or stay variable and wait for a dip in rates in the next couple of years? (I'm in Canada and 5 yr fixed are the longest we can easily get).
Its so situation dependent for those types of decisions because a personal situation could far outweight any macro move.
Inflation is inherently cyclical in its nature and mean reverts. So im sure it will come down and be back at 2% or lower one day. The question is more about timing. I wouldnt be betting on a "huge dip" in interest rates over the next coming year unless there is significant deflation in which case home prices would be much lower.
In the picture you shared is said that the DXY is expected to lose it's 100 support.
If the Fed is done hiking AND ex-US is expected to tightened further, all else been equal, the DX will lose support. I get it. Textbook.
But this view assume that the growth component (and also the inflation component) cross-countries will be stationary (or at least nearly stable), along with the credit and volatility component.
Do you think that CBs moves has more information signal in this juncture that all the other variables?
Anyhow I know these are all components that has to be measured, and I do not think right now dxy and rates are the best trades available given the absence of sufficient conditions to ride a "trend" (though imo the necessary ones are in play).
Great report. Thank you. Regarding the topic about will the fed start cutting only once inflation gets to 2%, do you think the Fed gives any credence to the real time data from Truflation?
And what do you think about Truflation?
I mean I don’t know what Jpow looks at but I don’t think anyone takes truflation seriously. I never look at it.
The most important thing is the market doesn’t care about truinflation
Interesting. Mike Green and Danielle D. Booth both gave it credence. Seems like it might be a valuable data point.
Yeah I mean fair enough. Both of them are smart people
What's the prompt for the chatgpt model on CPI
Ask it to take the MoM rate of change and extrapolate that same speed 6 months forward.
I did an article on that somewhere
Thanks cap
How far back do you look when you're looking for data to input in the chatgpt model
Can one extrapolate data from a year ago or does it have to be more than
Youd have to backtest different timeframes. you can look at 3 month trend though and extrapolate the average of that forward
just depends
Not to be pushy but a video as an example would be great
just sayin
Yeah probably would take to long and not many people are interested lol
if you read some books on econometrics and statistics then youll be able to figure it out
I'll make sure to figure it out
It's not just the function of chatgpt to act as mathematical model. I'm looking at chatgpt holistically. If you can do that they're probably many other extremely useful things you can do with it
I hope this isn't too naive of a question but where do you see consumer interest costs going in the next 5 years? Would you lock a mortgage in now or stay variable and wait for a dip in rates in the next couple of years? (I'm in Canada and 5 yr fixed are the longest we can easily get).
Its so situation dependent for those types of decisions because a personal situation could far outweight any macro move.
Inflation is inherently cyclical in its nature and mean reverts. So im sure it will come down and be back at 2% or lower one day. The question is more about timing. I wouldnt be betting on a "huge dip" in interest rates over the next coming year unless there is significant deflation in which case home prices would be much lower.
Big report as always.
In the picture you shared is said that the DXY is expected to lose it's 100 support.
If the Fed is done hiking AND ex-US is expected to tightened further, all else been equal, the DX will lose support. I get it. Textbook.
But this view assume that the growth component (and also the inflation component) cross-countries will be stationary (or at least nearly stable), along with the credit and volatility component.
Do you think that CBs moves has more information signal in this juncture that all the other variables?
Anyhow I know these are all components that has to be measured, and I do not think right now dxy and rates are the best trades available given the absence of sufficient conditions to ride a "trend" (though imo the necessary ones are in play).
For a second i thought you just copy pasted the equities section from the last report
I never copy and paste stuff
If the view is unchanged it’s unchanged