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Macro Report/Insights: Twitter Spaces - Market Views
Maintain a position of perspective
I spent some time expanding more on my macro views and the logic behind why there is a relationship between where GDP is running and where inflation is running. Here is the audio link:
The original macro report with these views is here:
The final thing I want to touch on is about regimes and correlations. Quantifying regimes is fundamental for measuring the risk-reward of asset classes (see this article I wrote on it: link).
Here is the deal though, when we move into a regime where negative growth and recession are the dominant impulse in markets, it will be much clearer because market returns AND asset correlations will shift.
For example, there is a reason why we aren’t seeing a negative stock-bond correlation. Think about it for a minute. If bonds and stocks are going down, the dominant impulse remains inflation. Once this begins to make an incremental change, we begin to shift our views and trades.
Bottom line, you don’t want to try to get too far ahead of the market. Stay in a position of strength and perspective so you have the capital to take those large swings when they come.
Thanks for reading!