Macro Report/Insights: Twitter Spaces - Market Views
Maintain a position of perspective
Hey everyone!
I spent some time expanding more on my macro views and the logic behind why there is a relationship between where GDP is running and where inflation is running. Here is the audio link:
https://twitter.com/Globalflows/status/1696606184789381621
The original macro report with these views is here:
Macro Report/Insights: Comprehensive Macro Report
Hey everyone, I always like taking time away to write longer form macro reports framing how I trade for the next couple of months. The last macro report really hit the nail on the head with how bond price action would play out through the month of August:
The final thing I want to touch on is about regimes and correlations. Quantifying regimes is fundamental for measuring the risk-reward of asset classes (see this article I wrote on it: link).
Here is the deal though, when we move into a regime where negative growth and recession are the dominant impulse in markets, it will be much clearer because market returns AND asset correlations will shift.
For example, there is a reason why we aren’t seeing a negative stock-bond correlation. Think about it for a minute. If bonds and stocks are going down, the dominant impulse remains inflation. Once this begins to make an incremental change, we begin to shift our views and trades.
Bottom line, you don’t want to try to get too far ahead of the market. Stay in a position of strength and perspective so you have the capital to take those large swings when they come.
Thanks for reading!
Haven't been in bonds last two+ years, started a position in the long end the other day. I agree, could absolutely be early, but fishing out the turn is a hobby. I think pos corl continues to the upside for both into EOY, until lowering yields become too good to be true and the flip commences. Nothing on my end screaming this tho, between NHNL and BAMLH0A0HYM2, VIX/VIX3M, etc.
😂Just out of curiosity, how do you manage to read and digest books and papers and information soooo fast? (Like in the case from the RORO essay, with so many papers, did you read them anew or had read them before?)