Hey everyone,
Several quick updates on trades and some bigger-picture analysis.
I have been long the Nikkei and the trade is working incredibly well (link):
I noted that this position can potentially offset the Yen marginally if we don’t see the Yen and Nikkei rally simultaneously (link).
The Yen is almost at breakeven where we doubled down on the Goldilocks trade (link). I am cutting the long Yen position here and letting the Nikkei long run:
While I still like the Yen long as we have additional BoJ action, you need to be able to be nimble enough to move risk around like this. You have to manage these things in real-time and not retrospectively cherry-pick winners.
I noted in the Sunday bond report that you want to be long NQ into CPI (link). This continues to be my view. We might have some hedges unwind but I believe equities will make an ATH in Q1:
I have laid out all of the research and views in the macro report:
Comprehensive Macro Report: Structural Support and Cyclical Trends
We are starting 2024 strong by quantifying the structural dynamics in the US economy and connecting them with cyclical trends. I write a monthly macro report breaking down growth, inflation, and liquidity to show how they impact each major asset class. If you want to see the previous macro report, here are the links:
And expanded on it in the macro webinar:
Macro Webinar #2: Recording
If you missed it, here is the macro report that was released yesterday: Also, here are the articles I mentioned in the webinar: Real Estate Report: Link Economic Data Model: Link How Crypto Fits Into Macro Flows: Link Forward Curves: Link Here is the slide deck from the webinar:
Keep your seat at the table!
Here is the Discord link for those who haven’t joined: https://discord.gg/jTTxwX3q
awesome work i had been eyeing the ewj for awhile and watching it make a bullish pattern for weeks at my FXY longs expense.... i cut fxy earlier today as well since my ewj doing so well from your post days ago.