Trade: Update

Japan

Hey everyone,

Several quick updates on trades and some bigger-picture analysis.

I have been long the Nikkei and the trade is working incredibly well (link):

I noted that this position can potentially offset the Yen marginally if we don’t see the Yen and Nikkei rally simultaneously (link).

The Yen is almost at breakeven where we doubled down on the Goldilocks trade (link). I am cutting the long Yen position here and letting the Nikkei long run:

While I still like the Yen long as we have additional BoJ action, you need to be able to be nimble enough to move risk around like this. You have to manage these things in real-time and not retrospectively cherry-pick winners.

I noted in the Sunday bond report that you want to be long NQ into CPI (link). This continues to be my view. We might have some hedges unwind but I believe equities will make an ATH in Q1:

I have laid out all of the research and views in the macro report:

And expanded on it in the macro webinar:

Keep your seat at the table!

Here is the Discord link for those who haven’t joined: https://discord.gg/jTTxwX3q