Trade Updates / 1 Year Of Capital Flows Complete

Important announcement at the end!

I focus on alpha generation. It’s my job. Alpha requires you to function at your best when things are at their worst. I share the entirety of this process because risk-taking in markets (and life) is about developing the skill of adaptation and resilience. If you don’t want to become this type of person, entrust your capital to someone who is.

I have laid out the macro backdrop, capital flows, and skew of all major assets incredibly clearly in the alpha report that was released for paid subscribers on Sunday, March 17th. This report correctly analyzed the risk-reward of assets moving into this week and explained the flows that were likely to take place. These views were then confirmed and realized today after FOMC. I have since removed the paywall so that free Subscribers can see the quality of analysis that takes place. It speaks for itself.

The main idea was that risk flows in stocks, bonds, currencies, and metals were pricing an unrealistic stance of the Fed. There was minimal downside in taking long bond, short dollar, long stocks, Long Bitcoin, and long gold trades into FOMC. Yesterday (March 19th) before market close, I opened the following trades:

These were all documented in the article below (the paywall has been removed as well since they are already significantly onsides. Continued tracking and profit-taking updates will be reserved for paid subscribers):

Market participants continue to misunderstand HOW market pricing mechanisms are functioning in this new regime and media personalities only focus on tail events. Hedge funds have stringent drawdown controls that limit them from taking large leveraged positions on a higher timeframe. There has never been so much edge to generate discretionary alpha on a higher timeframe.

One of the most successful investors of all time (Nick Roditi) said that diversification is the enemy of performance (See the section of the book on this I reference here: link. ). Immense leverage and concentration in a few big bets is how you attain outsized performance. This is how I trade markets.

This Substack is about displaying the entire trading process from research, to alpha generation and down to execution. If you have benefited from my work, all I ask is that you join me on the journey. We have officially hit the 1-year mark since I started the Capital Flows Substack and it has been a wild ride (327 articles published in the first year!). I can guarantee you that the research, alpha generation, and insights will only get better and better (see a synthesis of all educational articles here: Link).

If you are currently a Paid Subscriber, I truly appreciate you being long Capital Flows. The price of $50 a month ($600 annually) is NOT changing for you! If you haven’t pulled the trigger on being a Paid Subscriber, I would encourage you to lock in this price because it will be increasing to $60 ($720 annually) on March 31st. I don’t want anyone left behind or in the dark on this!

Year 2 of the Substack will have even MORE intensity at which research, trades, and alpha are generated. As I say over and over “In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed.”

The best is yet to come!