Brainstorms: Trust Isn't Evenly Distributed Throughout Society

Information + Trust = Unstoppable

From the very beginning of this Substack, I have said this:

In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed

Information isn’t evenly distributed through time and space though. Why is this important? Well because it means that you can know something BEFORE other people or know something that other people CAN’T know.

If information flowed through time and space perfectly, markets would look very different than they do today. This is a fundamental concept I noted in my synthesis article:

Information Isn’t Enough:

The problem is that information isn’t enough. You can have the most amazing skillset, product, or idea on planet Earth but if people don’t trust you, you will never succeed to the scale that your potential provides.

The financial industry (and every industry) is littered with washed-up brilliant people who could never work with people. They had an amazing idea but no one knew them or trusted them.

If there is one thing that the entire blockchain and crypto industry showed everyone over the past 2 years, it’s that you still need trust.

Moral of the story: Be a trustworthy person of integrity.

The key:

Here is my fundamental principle on managing other people’s money: Your money represents your time and you can never get that time back. Because it represents something so valuable, I take personal responsibility for it and treat it like my own.

If someone doesn’t care about my capital as much as they care about their own and truly have skin in the game, I have no interest in working with them. However, if someone is incredibly smart and trustworthy, I want to be invested as much as possible in their future.

This is how we all think on an intuitive level but it’s rarely spoken about among all the market decks, backtests, Sharpe ratios, and spreadsheets.

Several Macro Thoughts:

Let’s chat about a few macro ideas before we close…………

Breakevens have been rising over the past couple of days indicating a rise in inflation expectations:

We continue to see downward pressure in bonds due to a collocation of factors. I am not outright bearish as I was previously (see macro reports: link and link) but I am definitely NOT getting long bonds yet. Why take the duration risk?

People continue to think that bonds are going to have this magical bid up 20% overnight due to a recession that will come out of nowhere. Just remember, macro takes place incrementally, not in a single moment.

One thing I will touch on is NVDA 0.00%↑. Here is the deal, I am not an expert on the stock but when news like this comes out and the stock barely moves down, it doesn’t scream super bearish to me:

Interesting note on CHF here:

Conclusion:

I will be sharing more thoughts in the comprehensive macro report I am writing but I will simply say that there are big things in the pipeline for the Capital Flows Substack!

Stay Tuned!

Thanks for reading!