Macro Report/Podcast: How to generate exceptional returns Pt.2 / Macro Flows Report

I have recorded part 2 of the previous podcast and have attached a report on the current state of macro flows

Previous Podcasts and Articles I mentioned:

• Macro Podcast: How to generate exceptional returns

• The Research HUB: Risk Management And The Mental Game

• All the educational primers on every aspect of macro: Link and Link

Macro Flows:

In this report, I am going to explain the macro flows, tensions, and levels we are currently seeing across each major asset class. I will cover the following:

• How the stock bond correlation and levels in equities and bonds, connect to the macro regime.

• How crude and the commodity complex is likely to move into the end of 2024.

• The top 5 things people are missing about this macro regime.

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Big Picture:

I have laid out my macro views in the following articles:

• Macro Update: Interest Rates, Equities, and Bitcoin

• Trade: Interest Rates

As I noted in the reports linked above, there a tension with the time horizon in bonds right now: Bonds remain skewed to the upside on a cyclical basis but we are unlikely to break UP through this level BEFORE FOMC:

While the inflation prints this week are likely to cause some volatility, the front loading in cuts is a bit aggressive right now:

This aggressiveness is reflected in the SOFR spreads:

As we move through this week, I am going to explain the signals and correlations you should be watching.