Alpha Report: Redundency Planning For The Storm

Establishing clarity and convinction

How to approach a domain with high levels of uncertainty:

Redundancy planning, scenario analysis, and probabilistic thinking are THE RULE for markets:

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Big Picture:

You can review all of the recent reports here explaining the macro regime we are in and the risk-reward of assets:

• Comprehensive Macro Report

• Comprehensive Macro Report: Podcast Breakdown

• Alpha Report: A storm is coming / the next big swing

• Alpha Report: Moar pain?

If all of this is newer, you can review all of the Macro Alpha Primers here:

• Macro Alpha Primer: Credit Risk and Duration Risk and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Correlations and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Macro Catalysts, Hedging Pressure, and Positioning and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Positioning Premiums and Macro Podcast: Macro Alpha Primer

• Macro Alpha Primer: Stacking Edges To Identify a Sucker

All of the educational primers are here:

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Main Idea:

We are in an important period of time where positioning turned net long in equities after the election hedges were unwound.

And inflation risk has accelerated marginally on a short-term time horizon.

Additionally, we are sitting on significant returns YTD which could create conditions for more negative returns in the beginning of-year seasonality to be realized:

The podcast below explains the scenario analysis for the macro regime which is accompanied by a technical breakdown of the following assets: The S&P500, Bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin, and crude. These will set the context for HOW to take action over the next month.

(As a reminder, there will be a price increase on the Substack this Friday. If you subscribe BEFORE then, you can lock in the current rate. All of the details have been laid out here: link)

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Macro Podcast Explaining Scenario Analysis: