Betting Against the Dollar Is the New Crowded Trade
Inside the Positioning Trap That Could Trigger the Next Dollar Rally
Betting Against the Dollar Is the New Crowded Trade
We are seeing significant crowding in the dollar positioning that I cover in this video. The implication? Bullish on the dollar until this crowded positioning gets squeezed out.
Educational Primers on FX:
The 5-Part FX Primer is here:
Part 1: FX - Resources, The Big Picture, Variables, Aggregating Knowledge, and Essential Tools.
Part 2: FX - Synthesizing Information from Part 1: Theory, Practice, Causal Mechanics vs. Regression Analysis.
Part 3: Delving into Historical Case Studies: The Importance of Studying History, Continuity vs. Discontinuity, and the Challenges of Backtesting in FX.
Part 5: Integrating Knowledge: Top-Down and Bottom-Up Analysis, Attribution Analysis, the Expectations vs. Actual Matrix, and Quantitative Models.
I would strongly encourage you to review the video and primers I laid out here because central banks are critical in understanding the dollar here. I also provided an in-depth report on HOW to connect the proper signals to the moves in the dollar:
Central Banks on the Edge: The Global Cost of Policy Error
Central Banks on the Edge: The Global Cost of Policy Error
As always, a Pepe for the culture:
The information on this website/Substack is for information purposes only. It is believed to be reliable, but Capital Flows does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The information on the website/Substack is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase of stock or any financial instrument. The information and materials contained in these pages and the terms, conditions and descriptions that appear, are subject to change without notice. Unauthorized use of Capital Flows websites and systems including but not limited to data scraping, unauthorized entry into Capital Flows systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted on a site is strictly prohibited. Your eligibility for particular services is subject to final determination by Capital Flows and/or its affiliates. Investment services are not bank deposits or insured by the FDIC or other entity and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Your use of any information which is proprietary to Capital Flows or a third-party information provider shall only be used on individual devices without any right to redistribute, upload, export, copy, or otherwise transfer the information to any centralized interdepartmental or shared device, directory, database or other repository nor to otherwise make it available to any other entity/person/third party, without the prior written consent of Capital Flows.
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonsmyth/p/bitcoin-ubi-economic-reform-model?r=5zr3sl&utm_medium=ios
Hey if you could take 90 seconds to skim through the summary of this economic reform model built around bitcoin. The full model is extremely in depth and claimed by 7 Ai agents to be the best available. If you find it’s worth sharing, you’re more than welcome. Appreciate your time man 🙏