Equity Report: Where is the S&P500 going?
Mapping the probabilities of a melt up or melt down in stocks
“Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt.”
Paul Tudor Jones
Since it was published, the long ES trade has provided considerable returns. Hedge fund managers and market observers continue to underestimate the right tail risk in markets and misunderstand how to measure the ACTUAL probabilities. See the trade here:
And YES, I am still holding the long ES trade. When I close the trade, I will publish an article here. For now, I am holding!
As narratives continue clouding people’s judgment, the trader who can establish clear thinking and a proper interpretation of the flows of capital will ALWAYS have an edge.
This is why I have written the equity report that is attached below. There are two things I will say over and over:
In the information age, you simply need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right information to succeed
And
“You wasted $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library.”
Good Will Hunting
I have laid out a comprehensive set of education articles on how to think about macro regimes, interest rates, and equities. If there are things in the equity report that don’t make sense to you, start going through ALL the educational articles.
Synthesis of all educational articles: Link
Interest Rate Primer: Link
Equity Market Primer: Link
Book Recommendations: Link
Continue working hard and posting Pepe’s!
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