The Research HUB: Be an exceptional contingency planner
What has given me incredible sucess in markets and life
Market narratives and flashy headlines are antithetical to the practitioner’s process of operating under uncertainty in both markets and life.
This video perfectly illustrates this:
Think about why the CEO of Goldman would even be asked that question. It is because they have exhibited tremendous success in benefiting from uncertainty. When you look behind the curtain of marketing, it is not a deterministic narrative that controls actions, it is contingency planning and preparation.
The moment you shift from thinking deterministically about outcomes to contingency planning is when you begin to have success in any endeavor. The difficulty with this is that it takes a lot of time and skill to prepare and contingency plan. On top of that, 90% of your work goes unused since the majority of the outcomes don’t take place.
It is incredibly difficult for people to recognize that they will do a lot of work that has zero output. However, the preparation is what gives them exposure to the single outcome that has a large payout. This is the value of contingency planning and extreme preparation, it gives you access to that single time when you have exposure to an explosive payout.
I have said this many times, when you watch a true professional execute on their craft, it looks like magic. Undergirding this perception is a tremendous amount of preparation and contingency planning. This is why there is such a large focus on proactive research on this Substack. Taking proactive initiative is what prepares you and allows you to see opportunity when it presents itself.
If you want to dig deeper into some of the research, check out these articles:
Synthesis articles with all educational primers: Link
Risk Management and Economic Model: Link
How Crypto Fits Into Macro Flows: Link
Country Primer On Japan: Link
Country Primer On Mexico: Link
Adaptation happens fastest when built on the foundation of preparation: